Thursday, November 01, 2007

Blitz finish season atop the USCL QPRs

The final Original US Chess League Quantitative Power Rankings for the 2007 regular season are out and there are a couple of surprises.

First, while 5 of the six playoff teams comprise the top 5 teams in rankings, the remaining playoff team -- Miami -- is ranked only 8th. Quite simply, the computer doesn't think much of the Sharks remarkable comeback over the past two weeks. Why? Well for one thing, Miami scored only 19 game points all season. This is less than Seattle and New Jersey and the same as Queens and Carolina, all teams that won't be playing in the post-season tournament. Next, the Sharks performance rating for the season (2364) is fourth worst in the league, ahead of only Carolina, Baltimore and Tennessee. Finally, Miami played the second weakest schedule of any team, based on opponent's cumulative record.

The other surprise is San Francisco edging Dallas for the number two spot despite coming in behind the Destiny in the Western Division standings. This is explained by several factors. First, while Dallas has one more match win, the two teams share the same number of game points. Next, the momentum indicator points towards the Mechanics who finished the season with two wins in a row. Last, while the Mechanics schedule strength was in the middle of the pack, the Destiny faced the weakest schedule of any team in the league.

It is interesting to compare the Dallas and San Francisco schedules. Excluding the two matches they played against each other, the teams shared the following opponents in common: 2 matches against Seattle, Tennessee, Carolina and Miami. Their unique matches were as follows:
It's not hard to see that the Destiny had an easier road in 2007.

If the playoffs follow the QPRs (which is very unlikely), then the East will follow form - Philadelphia will defeat New York in Round 1 and Boston will prevail in Round 2. In the West, after defeating Miami in Round 1, San Francisco will upset Dallas in Round 2. Finally, in a close match Boston will take the 2007 Championship.

Of course, no one is really interested in computer analysis, so let's have them play the matches instead.

Original US Chess League Quantitative Power Rankings v.2
After Week 10
Format - (Match Record, Scaled Score, Last Week's Rank)
  1. Boston (7.0, .928, 2nd)

  2. San Francisco (6.0, .870, 4th)

  3. Dallas (7.0, .822, 1st)

  4. Philadelphia (6.0, .729, 3rd)

  5. New York (5.0, .622, 7th)

  6. Queens (4.5, .611, 9th)

  7. Seattle (4.5, .576, 5th)

  8. Miami (5.0, .543, 10th)

  9. New Jersey (4.5, .479, 6th)

  10. Carolina (4.5, .445, 11th)

  11. Baltimore (4.0, .413, 8th)

  12. Tennessee (2.0, .074, 12th)
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